Basketball Betting Analyzer

🏀 Basketball Betting Statistical Analyzer

Value Betting Calculator

How it works:

Value = (Probability × Odds) - 1. If Value > 0, the bet has positive expected value (EV+).

Expected Value = (Probability × Odds) - 1

Your probability estimate (%):

Bookmaker odds:

Bankroll size:

Kelly Criterion - Optimal Stake

How it works:

Kelly formula calculates the optimal percentage of your bankroll to bet, maximizing long-term growth.

Kelly % = (p × q - (1-p)) / q
where: p = probability, q = odds - 1

Your win probability (%):

Odds:

Bankroll:

Kelly fraction (safety): Full Kelly (100%) Half Kelly (50%) Quarter Kelly (25%)

ELO Rating System

How it works:

ELO system calculates win probability based on team ratings. Higher ELO = greater chance of winning.

P(A wins) = 1 / (1 + 10^((ELO_B - ELO_A) / 400))

Team A ELO Rating:

Team B ELO Rating:

Home Court Advantage (+ELO):

Team A Odds:

Poisson Model for Points

How it works:

Poisson distribution models the probability of a certain number of points. Based on team average scores.

Team A Average Points:

Team B Average Points:

Over/Under Line:

Handicap (for Team A):

📚 Key Information

Core Principles:

• Variance: Basketball has lower variance than soccer due to more scoring
• Home Court: Usually worth ~3-4 points or +100 ELO
• Back-to-back games: Teams lose ~2-3% efficiency
• Rest days: Teams with more rest have an advantage
• Motivation: Playoff chase, rivalry games have impact

Important Statistics for Analysis:

• Pace: Possessions per game - faster pace = more points
• ORtg/DRtg: Offensive/Defensive Rating - points per 100 possessions
• eFG%: Effective Field Goal % - accounts for three-pointer value
• TOV%: Turnover percentage - lost possessions
• FT Rate: Free throw rate - how often team gets to the line