PRIME Tier Recalibrated — 4/4 This Week, Volume Doubling to ~10 Picks/Week
This week
4 PRIME picks, 4 wins (100%).
The PRIME tier is the system's trading segment. Every pick is time-stamped and published before tip-off, and the full, unedited history is independently verifiable on OddsPedia.
The bottleneck was the odds band, not the model
Over the last 7 days (146 evaluated matches), only 8 matches (5.5%) landed inside the old 1.80–1.95 band. The edge filter (≥6%) passed 75% and the bookmaker-consensus filter (≥6) passed 57% — the odds band alone was the funnel.
The recalibration
A backtest over 29.9 weeks (BM≥8, edge≥6%, excluded leagues removed):
| Metric | Old 1.80–1.95 | New 1.70–2.00 |
|---|---|---|
| Picks | 59 | 118 |
| Win rate | 76.3% | 72.0% |
| ROI | +42.4% | +32.7% |
| Picks/week | 2.0 | 4.0 (×2) |
The real drop-off sits at 2.30, not 1.95 — the 2.00–2.30 band holds +31.4% ROI on its own. Widening to 1.70–2.00 roughly doubles volume while keeping ROI clearly positive.
What changes now
- PRIME odds band: 1.80–1.95 → 1.70–2.00 (edge ≥6% and BM ≥6 unchanged).
- Expected volume: ~10 picks/week — last week replayed under the new band yields 10 instead of 4.
The wider band is the fix for a thin-funnel constraint, not a model change. The edge and bookmaker-consensus filters are untouched.
— MrLongBG
